This is how your mind can betray you

Years back, I crowned confirmation bias as my go-to among all the biases, and honestly, I'm still waiting for evidence proving me wrong.  

But joking aside, this bias is sneaky, lurking around every decision we make—whether it's just been made or still to come.

It's this higher-order cognitive bias that plays both sides—seemingly, we dish it out and fall for it, daily.

Confirmation bias is when we over-value information that supports what we already believe, and we downplay or avoid anything that goes against it.

Sometimes we can sense it, hanging out beside us, always ready to mess with our logical, rational selves, offering comfort when decision making gets too raw.

Let me give you a couple of general examples, then we’ll move to the workplace...

Picture this: you're gearing up to vote in a local election, leaning towards a specific candidate. You do the whole pros and cons thing, then actively seek out articles that are basically cheering on your choice and dismiss anything that suggests otherwise.

Or how about car shopping? You've got your eye on a particular model, and suddenly, all you see are the glowing reviews and stories from other happy customers, completely ignoring any potential downsides during your test drive.

Confirmation bias doesn’t vanish when you leave the house. It follows you to the office, sneaks into your digital relationships, and sets up camp in your work life too.

Confirmation Bias and Leadership

Hiring as Bias Personified
Let’s start with hiring. By now, we know that confirmation bias can impact our recruitment. It makes our workplaces less diverse and inclusive.

Of course, biases impact hiring in many ways, seen and unseen.

Interviewers are much more likely to choose a candidate who matches their own beliefs, even if other candidates are just as good or even better.

And, once that decision is made, confirmation bias seals it. When checking references, any positive previous experience is overvalued, and anything negative is dismissed as not relevant in our context.

Biased Performance Management
Performance managing an employee? Confirmation bias is right there in the room with you. Leaders usually have a preconceived opinion about an employee's abilities. So, we are more inclined to give weight to anything that confirms our existing views, while overlooking or downplaying other aspects of the employee's performance.

Problematically, it goes both ways. The poor performers are found wanting. The stars shine ever brighter. We see our cherry picked examples as “proof”.

Confirmation bias hinders fair assessment. It harms meaningful feedback, limiting an employee's growth—as the manager inadvertently reinforces their existing perceptions rather than more thoughtfully, objectively, and fairly, addressing everyone’s overall performance.

What’s in the lunchroom, is in the boardroom.
What about corporate strategy development? Confirmation bias can manifest when decision-makers cling to their initial ideas or favoured approaches.

We actively seek information that supports our preferred strategy, gravitating towards data, people, ideas, evidence, or insights that align with our preconceived notions. What looks like a strategy session all-too-often is a coronation.

What do we miss? Well, lots. From leveraging alternative strategies to mitigating potential risks, too much confirmation bias in the boardroom can be fatal.

What Can be Done?

If it’s true that confirmation bias is a part of our everyday lives, and it’s not going anywhere soon, how do we manage it?

Here are five things leaders can do to lessen the negative effects of confirmation bias:

1. Mix it Up in Meetings
Intentionally build corporate practices and policies that bring in a variety of voices into your processes—such as, for hiring or strategy development. More perspectives mean less chance of getting stuck on one candidate, or idea. 

2. Stick to the Game Plan
Use clear, co-designed, scoring, or decision-making rubrics—such as, when providing feedback, or performance reviews. Collaborative and fair processes help to welcome in all the facts, not just the ones that agree with what you already believe.

3. Numbers Don't Lie
Rely on concrete performance metrics to support decision making. Yes, there’s room for nuanced personal experience and “gut feel”. This isn’t a randomized controlled trial—it’s just business decision making, after all. But use the data and analysis you do have. Keep it real and measurable, so there's less room for biases.

4. Recruit from the Whole Well
Make search, recruitment, and hiring, as fair as possible so you can benefit from the best available talent. Remove whatever you can that could overtly trigger, or covertly bake in, biases. Create stop signs, and gates, in common processes that seek out, and catch, biases forming.  

5. Regular Check-ins and Tune-ups
Stay flexible and aware. Regularly review and question your individual and team’s assumptions. Are you living your stated values? Start by naming biases. Then, you can notice them more often, and work towards seeking out different views, data, alternative ideas, people, and options—to keep your organization safe and strong.

Final Thoughts

I’ll leave you with this little cerebral fortune cookie.

A confirmation bias is sort of like being in a conflict of interest with your own mind.

As those of you who’ve worked with me in a board governance context will remember, conflicts of interests are not inherently good or bad. They just are.

But, they need to be declared, acknowledged, and managed.

Confirmation bias is like this too. When we normalize our biases, we can better manage and mitigate them.